Will there ever be a sustainable solution of the Rohingya crisis?

On Aug. 25, 2017, hundreds of thousands of refugees started crossing the border between Myanmar and Bangladesh, entering Bangladesh on foot and by boats amid indiscriminate killings and other acts of violence in Myanmar's Rakhine state. Those fleeing attacks and violence in the 2017 exodus joined around 300,000 people already in Bangladesh from previous waves of displacement, effectively forming the world's largest refugee camp. Six years later, about half a million Rohingya refugee children are living in exile from their home country.

This was not the first time that such a situation evolved in Bangladesh. We watched a similar scenario that had evolved in 1977 and 1992 and had led to tens of thousands of Rohingyas seeking sanctuary in the south eastern Districts of Bangladesh bordering Myanmar. In 1979 and 1992, some quarter-million Rohingya refugees were repatriated within a year of arrival.

In February, 2024, growing apprehension was palpable in Bangladesh as the civil war in neighbouring Myanmar inched closer to its border, with two deaths reported when stray shells from Myanmar landed in a village in the hilly Bandarban District. Aware of the rising threat, Bangladesh placed security forces on high alert along its 270-mile frontier with Myanmar's restive Rakhine state, with particular focus on the Naf River that serves as a natural boundary.

Historically known as Arakan, Myanmar's Rakhine state was the site of a brutal military crackdown in 2017 that drove more than 1 million ethnic Rohingyas to seek refuge in Bangladesh. Initially welcoming them with

open arms, Bangladesh has since grown restless over their prolonged presence.

Current Foreign Affairs Adviser in the Bangladesh Interim Government Touhid Hossain made an interesting observation at that time regarding their repatriation. He noted that one of the existing challenges pertaining to their repatriation came from the fact that although Myanmar's ruling military junta had approved to take back the displaced Rohingyas, it had not agreed to grant them citizenship. Such a situation was not acceptable to the Rohingya refugees as they refused to return to their country under a military junta they distrust. Until the conditions are in place in Myanmar that would allow Rohingya families to return home with basic rights - safety from violence, citizenship, free movement, health and education - they are stuck as refugees or internally displaced persons living in overcrowded and sometimes dangerous conditions.

Currently, a grim picture continues to present itself in the extensive Rohingya camps in coastal Cox's Bazar, the southernmost district of Bangladesh. The sounds of gunfire and explosions in Rakhine resonate within the makeshift shelters, underscoring the reality of the situation.

The Arakan Army, a predominantly non-Rohingya rebel group fighting for an autonomous Rakhine state, launched a significant offensive last October, coordinating with other ethnic armed groups to place immense pressure on Myanmar's ruling military, known as the Tatmadaw. Reports have since suggested that the Tatmadaw has retaliated with artillery bombardments causing civilian casualties, including Rohingyas in Rakhine. The death of villagers caused by stray shelling and the entry of more than 200 members of Myanmar's border police force, many of them wounded, taking refuge in Bangladesh also created further apprehension within Bangladesh. This led to worries that the conflict might spill over into Bangladesh.

Many analysts took that opportunity to reiterate that armed groups and any new influx of refugees would no longer be welcome in Bangladesh, which has grappled with displaced Rohingyas three times in four decades.

Since 2017, Dhaka's diplomatic efforts have been stalled by the absence of safety guarantees and denial of citizenship, while broad international condemnation of Myanmar's military as perpetrators of genocide has failed to soften the junta's stance. Even Dhaka's efforts to have China broker a deal with the Tatmadaw have yet to produce results.

Adviser Hossain, however, remains hopeful that negotiations involving the pro-democracy National Unity Government (NUG) formed by elements of the ousted civilian government, could play a significant role in resolving the crisis. He also sees the Arakan Army as a key player in the process. It may also be noted that on the eve of the coup's third anniversary, the NUG has reiterated its commitment to ending the military's political rule and transitioning the country back to civilian governance through negotiations. That potentially leaves the door open for talks, provided Myanmar's military accepts the NUG's political objectives. Hossain also believes that both the NUG and the Arakan Army could be pivotal in resolving the Rohingya crisis, pointing out that the NUG has already recognized the Rohingyas as citizens and promised them security and rights. He has also called for Bangladesh to establish an informal channel of communication with the groups.

However, analysts and strategists have observed at different times that a further complication of the crisis has been created because of the geopolitical rivalry between India and China. Beijing's US Dollar 7.3 billion effort to create a Bay of Bengal deep-sea port in Kyaukphyu on the Rakhine coast, which has been in development since 2010, is being perceived with anxiety by India. This feeling has been generated because India knows that completion of such a port is expected to give China strategic access to the Indian Ocean, allowing it to bypass the narrow Strait of Malacca through which some 80 per cent of its oil imports now arrive from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, India's development of a port in Sittwe got underway in 2023. It is the first node of a US Dollar 484 million project aimed at connecting greater India with its landlocked northeast through western Myanmar's Rakhine and Chin states, bypassing Bangladesh.

Amid those challenges, Bangladesh is left to manage a delicate balancing act while hoping for a resolution to the Rohingya crisis and a peaceful resolution to the conflict on its border with Myanmar.

Working with the government of Bangladesh and partners, UNICEF has been helping to provide water and sanitation including the establishment of diarrhea treatment centres, health services for children and pregnant women, support for access to education, including establishing learning centres. Their efforts in this regard have been critical for creating, protecting and promoting respect for the rights and dignity of the Rohingya refugees. UNICEF hopes that their efforts to provide educational opportunities to the Rohingya refugees will ensure that the refugees are equipped and ready to return to a life of dignity in their homeland.

H. Tameesuddin Co-Secretary General of Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network has correctly observed, "one of the most glaring failures of the international community has been its inability to act promptly during the peak of the genocide in 2017. The absence of emergency intake or resettlement programmes at that critical time was a damning indictment of the global response to the Rohingya crisis. Over the years, the Rohingya crisis has become a stark example of the consequences of prolonged and systematic persecution. The Rohingya community, both in Myanmar and in the diaspora, has faced unimaginable hardships. The response from the international community, including regional bodies like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has also been woefully inadequate. While emergency aid has been provided, long-term solutions have been conspicuously absent".

Beth Van Shaack, Special Ambassador to the U.S. Department of Foreign Affairs, was recently interviewed at the Washington DC Metropolitan Foreign Affairs Department. It is interesting to note that B.V. Shaack referred to the existing number of lawsuits filed in many courts against the way the Rohingya people have been treated. There has been reference to contravention of international law including the Genocide Convention. There has also been reference to the fact that although investigations are ongoing, the ICC International Criminal Court has not yet been able to issue an arrest warrant. Reference has also been made to the fact that a case was filed against Myanmar by Gambia in the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) but nothing has emerged from it.

Consequently, many strategic analysts have observed that although the issue of human rights is reiterated by the United Nations and most countries like the United States, United Kingdom, the EU, necessary measures are not undertaken to ensure its implementation.

This month marks seven years since the military

operations in Myanmar drove 700,000 people across the border into Bangladesh. Despite the world saying

"never again", we are witnessing killings, destruction and displacement in the Rakhine State.

Parties to the armed conflict are issuing statements denying responsibility for attacks against the Rohingya and others, acting as though they are powerless to protect them. This stretches the bounds of credulity. Despite repeated warnings and calls for action, the ongoing violence also underscores the prevailing sense of impunity and the persistent challenges in ensuring protection of civilians in accordance with international law.

The UN Secretary-General has called on all parties to

the conflict in Myanmar to end the violence and ensure the protection of civilians in accordance with applicable

international human rights standards and international humanitarian law. He has also renewed his appeal to strengthen regional protection efforts to provide access to conflict-affected communities and further support host countries, including through the 2024 Joint Response Plan for the Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis.

Bangladesh, however, will continue to wait, but nothing seems to be on the cards in the near future.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. [email protected]