The Republicans with a few Democrats in the US Congress are opposing the Iran nuclear deal through which the latter has committed itself not only not to pursue any nuclear weapons programme for the next fifteen years but also not to try and purchase the nuclear bomb from any international source. And as the US President has explained, the P5 plus 1 and the UN have agreed to withdraw the crippling economic sanctions subject to the stringiest verification and inspection by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The moment anyone of the P5 plus 1 and the UN would find Iran in violation of the deal even in the slightest, the sanctions would automatically go into place.
The opposition of the US Congress is extremely important. The other signatories of the deal are ready and waiting for the US President to sign the deal. In case of the US, the deal must be voted in Congress and approved by the President as required by the country's Constitution. At the moment, the Republicans hold both Houses of the Congress but they would still require support from quite a few Democrats for the 2/3rd majority without which the President would be able to use his veto power and sign the deal. The US Congress that is in recess now will have to vote on the deal by September 17.
The reasons that the Republicans are giving to oppose the deal are interesting. They are saying that the lifting of economic sanctions would give Iran access to US$ 150 billion that have been frozen abroad. With that Iran will be able to sell oil in the international market. Combined, these developments will make Iran very rich and take it to the threshold of developing the nuclear bomb. All it will need to do is wait for 15 years for the deal to expire. Meanwhile, with its riches through the lifting of the sanctions, Iran will be able to arm itself to the teeth with conventional weapons and assist elements like Hezbollah and Hamas that are threats to Israel whose interests are as important to the Republicans as those of the United States.
Thus, what the Republicans and those among the Democrats who oppose the deal want in effect are: First, they want Iran to accept the economic sanctions which they want to be further strengthened. Second, they want Iran to voluntarily cease pursuing any interest in building the nuclear bomb. Finally, they want to invade Iran if it shows any dissatisfaction with the sanctions and intention to build the bomb and take out any assumed or real capabilities of building the bomb by force. They do not explain how Iran would be able to satisfy them without voluntarily surrendering its sovereignty to them.
The opponents in the United States are in fact in denial of reality in wanting what Iran cannot deliver. In fact, no country worth anything at all will submit itself to what the opponents of the Iran deal in the US Congress want. There are a host of reasons not to do so. Iran has a history of uninterrupted civilisational growth and development that is many thousands of years old. It has the fourth largest oil reserve in the world. Finally, its leadership is supported by the people and both ready and willing to make any sacrifice for the country. Iran thus is surely not a country upon which the US can impose its will anyway it wants.
The opponents of the deal are also forgetting that the United States no longer dominates the world. Its role in world politics has become questionable particularly with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that have brought much more turmoil than there was in the world before these wars. For example, ISIS today is the direct product of the invasion of Iraq that President Bush started on false premises that have led to nearly half a million deaths of innocent men, women and children and has pushed Iraq to the verge of disintegrating as a country.
The rest of the P5 plus I countries are concerned as much as the US President with the attitude of the Republicans to derail the deal. The ambassadors of these countries did something very unusual in Washington's diplomatic history. They made rounds meeting top Republican Congress leaders as well as Democrats before the Congress went on recess to explain that it would be foolhardy for the Congress to scuttle the deal that is, by all consideration, the best they could have hoped or expected to achieve from Iran short of the country's total capitulation. The underlying message in the unusual rounds that these ambassadors have made in Congress is that if the deal were eventually scuttled, the US would be left alone and some of these countries, led by China and Russia, would go ahead and lift their part of the sanctions and go ahead and do business with Iran. There is also the good chance that western European countries would also eventually do the same. Iran's rich oil resources and other economic potential would be too tempting to keep the sanctions in place on the basis of the reasons that the Republicans have put forward that they alone believe and want.
Thus whatever the Republicans do in Congress with the vote, Iran has already marched well ahead with the deal. If it is scuttled, Iran knows that the majority of the coalition that had worked together on the economic sanctions would abandon the USA and go ahead and do business with it. If the deal goes through, then of course it would be a diplomatic victory for Iran all the way.The leadership and the people of Iran are relieved that they have seen the worst of the economic sanctions and are rejoicing with the nuclear deal agreement.
The Republicans in Congress are fighting for a cause that will go against them even if they succeed in derailing the deal. If it is derailed, the sanctions will be weakened and Iran will also be under no obligation not to pursue nuclear weapons programme or subject itself to IAEA verification. If the Republicans want war to stop Iran in case it does not subject itself to verification, that call will be opposed by China and Russia with good chance of negative response from Europe. Thus with all eyes now on the vote in Congress, the ball is in the court of US Congress with the rest of the world watching. Will the Republicans derail the deal and go against the rest of the world just to humiliate its President and please Israel or do the right thing and give diplomacy a chance? Iran at the moment appears, ironically, to be the country least bothered.
The Republicans will be damned if the deal goes through and damned if it is not. For Iran it is a win-win situation either way. The smile with the deal is thus on the Iranian face and the frown on the face of the United States.
The writer is a retired Ambassador.
 ambserajulislam@gmail.com