As had been apprehended by internationally reputed geologists, a devastating earthquake struck Nepal on April 25. It measured 7.8 on Richter scale, killing over five thousand people and triggering massive structural damages. The total death toll is feared to hit 10,000. The quake was immediately followed by another; and two aftershocks. The next day a minor temblor shook the Himalayan nation once again. To the chagrin of Nepalese people, experts said they had been waiting for a larger-magnitude quake. It was said to be overdue after the 1934 massive quake that had nearly flattened the capital Kathmandu. Geologists have applied here the mega quakes' pattern of recurrence every 100-135 years.
For the people of Bangladesh, the Nepalese disaster last week appears like a gloomy déjà vu, since the country, too, is situated in an active seismic pocket. The last massive earthquakes to hit the otherwise alluvial land occurred in 1885 and 1897. They are called the Great Bengal Earthquake and the Great Assam Earthquake respectively. Earlier, two other major quakes, i.e. Bengal-Arakan Earthquake (1762) and that of 1918 jolted Bengal and the surrounding areas.
With tremors shaking the Himalayan and lower-Himalayan regions intermittently, the great earthquakes in the area have emerged as disasters of cataclysmic proportions since long. In spite of its being a mostly plain land, Bangladesh is vulnerable to this natural calamity. An active fault in Madhupur near Tangail, not far from capital Dhaka, acts as an ever-present threat to the country. Tangail, Mymensingh and Dhaka districts lie directly on the Madhupur fault. The 1885 great quake, wreaking havoc on Rangpur, Bogra, Sherpur, Mymensingh, Dhaka and Pabna regions had its epicentre in Manikganj. Measuring 7-8 on Richter scale, the disaster was triggered by Madhupur fault. Another fault, located beneath Dauki in Meghalaya in north-eastern India, has enormous destructive force dormant in it. It has also impacted on Bangladesh, especially when the 1897 Assam Earthquake struck the land with a magnitude of 8 on Richter scale. Along with these two active faults in and around the country, there is the critical Indian-Eurasia plate on which a large portion of Bangladesh stands.
The 2015 Nepalese earthquake, its being part of the cycle of recurrence, cannot but worry experts in Bangladesh. Recurrence of a major earthquake is integral to the behaviour of nature. It is almost universal.
Keeping the two mega quakes in perspective, especially the one of 1885, geologists cannot be termed wrong if they urge people to brace for a major earthquake that might jolt the country in the near future. The country has been experiencing occasional minor tremors for the last ten years. Many experts have called those low-scale temblors foreshocks that precede a major earthquake.
These days, panic grips people in our large cities whenever a tremor shakes those. Many people are aware of the fact that a large-scale earthquake is overdue for Bangladesh. Let us focus on the national capital. Despite Dhaka's present status as one of the fast-growing cities in the world, during the two major earthquakes in the nineteenth century the city was sparsely populated, with light infrastructure. In the time-span of around one and half centuries, the city-cum-trading centre grew eventually into a bustling and densely populated metropolis. According to a recent study, a 7.5 magnitude short-duration earthquake in Dhaka will kill 200,000 to 300,000 people almost instantly, leaving hundreds and thousands injured and trapped in ruins. Urban planners fear nearly 200,000 tall and semi-tall residential and office buildings will crumble in the city. They also include large public and private hospitals. Many of them, if they remain standing, will become non-functional thanks to power and logistic disruptions. What is appalling, rescue operations will grind to a halt due to road inaccessibility in many overpopulated neighbourhoods, the study adds. It also points out fire incidents caused by fractures in gas lines and electric short-circuits.
Whatever impacts the 19th century earthquakes may have left on the city, those appear to have been passed off as minor ones. Unlike the town of Shillong in Assam and those in eastern Bengal, Dhaka remained beyond the destructive radius of the 1885 and 1897 quakes. The impact of these disasters was beyond much notice. In the 21st century, Dhaka is considered one of the 20 most high-risk, earthquake-prone cities in the world. The Earthquake Disaster Risk Index (EDRI) has included Dhaka in the list due to the city's rapid infrastructural development and its unbridled population growth. Dhaka is now an overcrowded metropolis, with its population growth reaching a feverish pitch. The 400-year-old historic city has long spun out of control in terms of urban framework. The frenzied migration of people to the capital from the country's different parts, the indiscriminate construction of high-rise buildings, both offices and apartments, have kept contributing to the worsening of the city's overall outlook. Experts have been alerting the government and people to the dangers of this urbanisation without proper plan --- in the event of an over-6 earthquake for short duration. Apart from the mass-level violation of the building code, unplanned construction of roads, questionable location of flyovers, over-bridges, underpasses etc, the fast depletion of groundwater is also adding to the feared extent of quake-prompted damages. In the meantime, the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) authorities have embarked on the work of constructing the metro-rail for Dhaka metropolis. After the April 25- 26 Nepalese earthquakes, the ambitious, yet badly needed, communication infrastructure calls for cautious steps in going ahead with it. Not many countries, let alone Bangladesh, can afford to deal with the infrastructural dislocation in their metro rail after it is shaken by a major earthquake. The same applies to multi-purpose bridges across rivers, and the vital highways. In our case, premonitions mainly emanate from racketeering during the construction phase of these mega projects.
Time perhaps is running out. The authorities should get down to the task of carrying out sub-surface imaging of the entire Dhaka metropolis. They should also identify the zones with faults and buried channels. This is necessary for designing an earthquake hazard map for the city. For effective pre-disaster physical planning and reduction in earthquake damage risks, micro-zoning warrants special focus. Unlike cyclones, floods and volcanic eruptions earthquakes cannot be forecast. This unique feature of the natural disaster has added to its fearfulness. However, people in the quake-prone countries have for ages been examining the patterns of minor and big tremors that occur before a major earthquake. But still the study of these tremors does not always lead to a correct result. According to experts, in many cases a large-scale earthquake may not be preceded by many tremors. And even if they are, the temblors might continue to occur for a long period of time, extending up to months and years. This makes way for lots of confusions.
In short, earthquakes are dreadful natural calamities which cannot be predicted, like lightning. They hit nations claiming lives and damaging properties. Earthquakes exact a heavy toll on economies. Even the fast-developing countries sometimes find it difficult to deal with the aftermaths of earthquakes that occasionally unfold there. For a disaster-prone LDC (least developed country) like Bangladesh, big earthquakes will eventually spawn scores of woes to batter it. Apart from triggering human casualties, major earthquakes can badly cripple the country's socio-economic structure. This was not the case in the tranquil and mostly agro-based nineteenth century Bengal.
Devastations left by earthquakes are markedly encountered in a country's urban areas. The cities and ports keep its pulse running. Given this fact, when it comes to facing earthquakes, the vital strategy of preparedness ought to begin from the cities, the larger ones in particular.
In the context of earthquake preparedness, capital Dhaka appears to be lagging miserably behind other fast-rising cities. The implementation of the much-touted building code is still illusory. The city's capability to efficiently run a rescue operation after a big earthquake can be called into question. Procurement of state-of-the-art infrastructural components and equipment should have long been in process. With an earthquake threat looming, raising trained rescue workers and volunteers couldn't have been more urgent. Besides, large hospitals need to be kept prepared to swing into action in no time in the event of a quake onslaught. The most important of all, the channels of public awareness of earthquake need to be used to the full. The present state in these areas cannot make us feel optimistic.
Mere ritualistic programmes on dealing with earthquakes may just end up being a drain on state coffers. We cannot afford to drag our feet. In the mindless dawdling, it is casualties and sufferings which will overwhelm us. The nation cannot tackle earthquakes by indulging in rhetoric.
shihabskr@ymail.com
© 2026 - All Rights with The Financial Express
