After a brief spell of full-blown spring, Bangladesh experienced bouts of rain and storm in the first week of April. Given the nearly continuous rain for several days, many have viewed it as a premature start of monsoon. Doomsayers read in the early rain the spectre of flood. According to Bangla calendar, the month is Chaitra. Although laced with the soothing exuberance of spring, the month stands for the advent of summer, which extends up to June. In between, the Bangla New Year makes its presence known through various types of festivities.
The rain that has visited the country just after the fleeting spring appears to have confused people.
As per the seasonal patterns in Bangladesh, the month of Chaitra does not normally go with rain or a wet weather. The general character of the month sees aridity, although it also sees mature and pre-harvest period of some varieties of crops including rice and maize.
This year as the rain soaked vast swathes of the country, farmers cultivating paddy and other crops in some areas have been benefited. The 'auspicious event' was an exception. It appeared just out of the blue. Chaitra in the last few years remained dry. With the Irri-28 rice plants at a young stage, peasants in some areas welcomed the sudden Chaitra shower. At the same time, the hailstorm accompanying the rain has damaged paddy fields in many areas, especially those in the charlands (river shoals). The early-April rain has been seen as 'usual' by some agro-scientists. Many others have observed that the intensity of the rainfall was much higher during the period than in earlier years.
The erratic course of nature is nothing strange to present Bangladesh. The annual rainfall has shown a noticeable reduction in the country lately; winter has almost made an exit. The humid summertime heat continues to torment people throughout the year. In the midst of these seasonal pattern-related chaos, winter in 2012-`13 behaved normally making people feel the bite of cold after a long gap. It had visited the country in those two years after a literally non-existence of winter.
Following the age-old cycle of seasonal floods, along with the disastrous ones, this natural phenomenon has been on the wane: floods do occur in the country, but they have become localised. They remain confined to certain regions. In the last few years, except the scenarios of the rivers flowing in spate in some northern and north-eastern pockets of the country, the much-dreaded big floods have not occurred in the country. Low-intensity and agriculture-friendly floods do visit Bangladesh. But the infrequent occurrence of destructive flooding may not make us feel comfortable.
The scourge of a large-scale drought may be awaiting the country. These days, our farmers have to cope with the ferocity and impact of a drought-like situation in one or another region every year. However, with the drought remaining a constant threat to our agriculture, agri-scientists have not lost much time in developing the drought-tolerant rice. Scientists at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) have also shown their excellence in genetically modifying a number of stress-tolerant varieties of rice. They also came up with submergence-tolerant and salt-tolerant varieties of rice. However, these genetically modified (GM) crops cannot replace their nature-bred counterparts. Owing to the weird conduct of nature, Bangladesh is compelled to make do with artificial crops, especially those belonging to food grains and vegetables.
That the fast-growing unpredictability of nature is not limited to Bangladesh is no news now. The process has begun since long. It is also no revelation that the culprit behind the appalling changes in the world's climate is environmental degradation or global warming, to be precise. The release of chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) into the atmosphere has long been contributing to the depletion of the ozone layer through a hole. It is being made in the stratosphere. This layer is critical to the survival of our planet and all living beings. Scientists have singled out the CFCs as products of unbridled industrial activities. Coupled with the emission of greenhouse gases, especially of carbon dioxide, also associated with reckless industrialisation, the release of CFCs has long been contributing to an environmental cataclysm. This came to be known as global warming, that has been continuing along with a fast rise in the earth's temperatures. In fact, ozone depletion and global warming are interrelated. The extensive degradation caused to the world's ecology is making way for grim consequences for mankind, to speak euphemistically. Putting it without mincing words, the overall environmental apocalypse being hastened by global warming, that lately emerged as climate change, actually spells doom for large areas on our planet. What the world needs at the moment are restrained emission of greenhouse gases and prompt reduction measures coupled with wisdom and empathy on the part of the leaders of industrialised countries. As has been pointed out at dozens of international conferences and discourses over the last two decades, it is the poor and developing countries that will bear the brunt of a world-scale global warming. Despite being fully aware of these grim prospects, the major greenhouse gas-emitting nations drag their feet on reaching an agreement on emission-cut. The USA, the country responsible for emission of a large volume of the world's greenhouse gases, had long delayed its signing off of a comprehensive deal on emission of these industrial pollutants. To a considerable relief of climate-change victims, the country has recently pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emission by 28 per cent. Acting in tandem with the US, economic behemoth China also expressed late last year its willingness to go for remarkable cuts in its greenhouse gas emission after a 'peak year'. The apparently positive stances taken by the world's two industrial giants make optimists beaming with hope. But sceptics are reserved, preferring to wait in a cautious expectation. For, in order to see a breakthrough climate treaty come into force many other highly developed and industrialised countries ought to come forward with genuine pledges. But realities speak otherwise. The positions of a number of these countries are not clear and conclusive.
Meanwhile, India, another major carbon dioxide-emitting country, appears to be stepping backwards and toning down its earlier assertions on greenhouse gas emission cuts. The country's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on last April 06 that India would not commit to cuts in greenhouse gas emission bowing to foreign pressure. He has defended India's present pace of industrialisation "to lift millions out of poverty". But to achieve this, the prime minister made it a point, India would increasingly turn to clean and renewable energy and traditional methods. The 'traditional methods' prompt one to think of the acts of burning coal which is considered one of the major contributors to the country's pollutant emissions.
Against this fuzzy backdrop, the UN climate meet is set take place in Paris later this year. The event is supposed to work out ways to limit the much-dreaded rise in global temperatures. Given the discordant notes at play, ecological activists have doubts about a fruitful outcome of the meet.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh, along with other developing countries with long coastal areas, is being shoved into the sidelines. Their vocal presence at the climate talks these days represents just one objective: seeking financial and other logistic support to mitigate the impact of sea-level rise and other natural hazards caused by climate change. Bangladesh lays its claim, rightfully at that, to a large share of the global climate-change fund. Apart from this, along with the other vulnerable countries, it also seeks funds created for adapting to strategies to cope with the impacts of climate change. In order to avail climate-change funds, we have to keep badgering the major players among the polluting nations into standing by us. We do not see any respite from this hectic job. If we begin to drag our feet, we do that at our peril.
Though not clearly noticeable, the disturbing signs of a changing climate in the country have started appearing over the last couple of decades. The unpredictable behaviour of the country's nature points to a grim development. We can ill afford to feign ignorance. It's high time we ensured our share in the global climate fund. After the two devastating floods in the late eighties (1987, 1988), Bangladesh has not had to cope with calamitous floods.
But the country had to keep itself coping with major and large-scale floods in the 2000s and the following two years. The land was hit by flooding in 2004, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014. However, long periods of drought haven't scorched us for over two decades. But it should not make us feel secure. Who can say fresh onslaughts of flooding and drought are not in the making? The major part of the country remained relieved of excessive rain over the last few years. The times ahead may not be this pleasant.
shihabskr@ymail.com
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