EXIT of Musharraf was fated; it was brewing with the war on terror, tottering economy, assassination of Benazir Bhutto last December, the humiliating defeat in national elections in February at the hands of opposition parties-the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and finally, the sacking of sixty judges of the Supreme Court including the Chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Choudhry.
Pakistani economy is being hit by rising oil and food prices as well as weakening demand in the US and Europe for its exports. Rising prices will only fuel social unrest.
The annual inflation rate is running at a 30-year high of nearly 25 per cent; the Pakistani rupee has fallen 22 per cent against the declining US dollar this year; and in the past five weeks, the country's foreign exchange reserves have dwindled by nearly $US1.1 billion to $10.15 billion, mainly because of the cost of imported oil.
The trade deficit has ballooned by 53 per cent to $20.7 billion for the 2007-08 fiscal year that ended in June. The share market has slumped by 30 per cent since April.
Share values and the rupee rose on the news of Musharraf's resignation, but further political turmoil will rapidly reverse those gains.
Musharraf entered Pakistan Military Academy in 1961 at the age of 18. He was commissioned in Pakistan Army in 1964. He became Army Chief in 1998 and seized power in 1999 by ousting Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Musharraf was the fourth military dictator of Pakistan and his main strength was always his uniform. He ruled Pakistan for nine years and hung his uniform in November 2007. After taking off uniform he was not able to survive for more than nine months.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was generous in her praise of the former Pakistani dictator. Musharraf, she declared, had been "a friend of the United States and one of the world's most committed partners in the war against terrorism and extremism".
Musharraf's resignation followed more than a week of behind-the-scenes manoeuvres involving US, British and Saudi officials as well as the Pakistani army to pressurise the government to grant the former dictator immunity from prosecution.
British and Saudi officials have also been engaged in closed-door talks to secure a deal that would allow Musharraf to resign in return for immunity from prosecution and other assurances.
Saudi Arabia's powerful intelligence chief Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz visited Islamabad and was reported to have threatened to withdraw oil subsidies worth $5.0 billion a year unless Musharraf was allowed to leave gracefully.
Musharraf resigned on August 18, 2008 fearing impeachment threats. He took his time to decide waiting for the two A's - America and the Army to bail him out, but both misfired, leaving him with no choice but to tender resignation.
America indicated it is the internal matter of Pakistan, while the Army remained neutral.
Pakistan has a unique history of military dictatorship. Suring its 61 years of independence, it has had as many as four Generals ruling the country, each 10 years or so.
The khaki clad generals never allowed a civilian to rule but manoeuvred to oust them mainly through coups.
PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari finally announced plans on August 7 to impeach Musharraf. Opinion polls showed overwhelming popular support-some 75 per cent of respondents-for ousting the president, which was reflected in spontaneous celebrations in the streets of Pakistani cities.
In his hour-long televised speech, Musharraf delivered a strident defence of his period in office, insisting that he had done nothing wrong blaming the government for the deterioration of the country's economy.
Musharraf is widely hated except a section of urban middle-class for his nine years of dictatorial rule and support for Washington's "bogus war on terrorism" that has trigged.
Musharraf was the only one who was given a guard of honour by Army after his departure from President House. President General Ayub Khan was forced to resign by Army Chief General Yahya Khan in 1969; second military President General Yahya Khan was forced to resign by General Gul Hassan in 1971, thus deprived of guard of honour. The third military and President General Zia was killed in a plane accident in 1988.
Musharraf was happy with his "safe exit," but he shared his disappointment about some "ungrateful" people who left him in the last days of his presidency.
One of them was the sitting Chief Justice of Pakistan Abdul Hameed Dogar. He became Chief Justice on November 3, 2007 after the imposition of state of emergency by Musharraf.
Dogar also validated the extra-constitutional acts of Musharraf after November 3. Musharraf contacted Dogar through a prominent lawyer in the first week of August 2008. He wanted a stay order from the Supreme Court against the impeachment motion announced by the ruling coalition to oust him. Dogar regretted and disappointed Musharraf.
What now after Musharraf is gone, will normality or for that matter democracy return to Pakistan? At the moment it would be premature to predict.
Both Zardari and Sharif are at loggerheads with each other. Only on one common point they agreed and that was the removal of Musharraf. And on August 25, former Pakistani prime minister pulled his party out of the ruling coalition, citing differences with the bigger Pakistan People's Party (PPP) over restoring judges who were dismissed by former president Pervez Musharraf.
Zardari is pro-American where as Nawaz Sharif is anti- American. Since the days of President Eisenhower, Pakistan is a strong ally of US, who have a strong say in moulding Pakistan politics and favour military dictatorship.
More fundamentally, the government now faces the same dilemmas that confronted Musharraf. It is under intense pressure from Washington to intensify military operations in the border areas with Afghanistan where the army has largely lost control.
A succession of U.S. presidents has found it hard to deal with democratically elected Pakistani leaders, who must balance the demands of electoral politics with U.S. interests in the region.
For much of Pakistan's history, Washington has preferred doing business with military dictators, who don't answer to voters and, at least on the surface, seem more eager than their citizenry is to cooperate with Washington.
Critics say Pakistan is a puppet state of the US who pumped billions of dollars in different dimensions for its own strategic and hegemonic interests.
Musharraf is now a 'spent force' for US as it has shown is eagerness to work with present government. This is a tight proposal considering the views of the leaders of the PPP and the Muslim League (Nawaz) who were partners in the ruling coalition and parted ways only the other day. about the US.
The reinstatement of the judges has been another contentious issue. Critics have suggested that Zardari is against the return of crusading chief justice Iftikhar Muhammad Choudhry because he could overturn an amnesty on corruption charges that allowed Ms Bhutto and Zardari to return to Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif pushed back his deadline for the judges to get their jobs back and his party has now pulled itself out of the coalition as per its warning about quitting the same if judges were not restored.
Asif Ali Zardari on August 22 won the backing of lawmakers from the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to contest the September 06 poll to choose the successor to Musharraf.
Sharif had then said he would back Zardari for presidency if he would do away with the presidential power to dissolve parliament. It was also reported that he had no objection to Zardari becoming the president provided he removes the 17th amendment. But subsequent developments have now further complicated the situation.
Zardari is noted as controversial person and dubbed Mr. Ten Per cent for amassing immense wealth through corruption during the reign of Ms. Bhutto. His climb to power would dismay many in Pakistan-a nation of 160 million who view him as a symbol of corruption.
However, Nawaz Sharif doesn't have a clean bill either. He too is charged with corruption. It is reported that it was his father, 'Abba Ji,' who ruled the roost during Nawaz's tenure, not to mention his brother Shabaz Sharif (Chief Minister of Punjab) and his wide network of family members and cronies who joined the loot.
It was corruption, nepotism and cronyism that defeated both the twice-elected Pakistani leaders.
It was also reported that Musharraf was not happy with the army chief. He was in a position to sack the army chief as the commander of the armed forces but he was aware that the army could defy the orders like he defied the orders of Prime Mister Nawaz Sharif in 1999 as the army chief. Musharraf wanted to buy time for this action and the time never came for him.
So far the military chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, has stayed well away from the fray, but many of his officers have a deep-seated contempt for the country's 'democratic' leadership - and now nurse a grudge over the politicians' hounding of Musharraf, their former commander-in-chief.
With every slip by Zardari and Sharif, more pressure will now grow on Kiyani to follow in the footsteps of so many of his predecessors and mount a coup.
Many of Pakistan's problems - extremism, economic hardship, joblessness - will likely get worse. At some point, the military will be tempted to step in.
Thus, beset with multifarious internal problems and political squabble, will normalcy and democracy return in Pakistan or if history is not wrong the khaki clad are cleaning the muzzle of their guns for yet anther coup to come to power.
The writer is a tea planter,
columnist & researcher
Musharraf's departure: What
Billy Ahmed | Published: August 27, 2008 00:00:00 | Updated: February 01, 2018 00:00:00
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