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Putting flood recurrence in a wider context

Shihab Sarkar | August 14, 2020 00:00:00


The country passed through the ordeals of devastating floods in consecutive years in the late 1980s and the 1990s. Geologically, Bangladesh has been a flood-prone country since ancient times. Following the tampering with the flows common rivers by upper riparian countries, beginning in the mid-1970s, the situation had continued to get worse. Another nature-borne disaster raised its ugly head soon, and began wreaking havoc to crops in years. It came in the form of drought. The people of the country, though used to a temperate climate, were not unfamiliar with extreme summer conditions with little rain. But the emergence of the punishing droughts became a nearly seasonal phenomenon after the obstruction of river flows upstream.

To the relief of the farmers, the intensity of both floods and drought remarkably declined in the following years. Over the last two decades or so, calamitous deluges have almost become rare. Thanks to the tolerably fruitful talks between the countries sharing common rivers, the yearly flooding of the country had emerged as an exceptional phenomenon.

However, Bangladesh had to pay a price for its being able to become free of the curse of flood. In the meantime, the country's major rivers, including the mighty Padma, entered the process of dying out. On the other hand, some other large rivers in the country's north continued to undergo the spells of mid-level floods. The reasons behind these rivers being in an overflowing state, however, lay to a great extent, in the onrush of water flowing from rain-swollen 54 rivers upstream. Bangladesh takes in waters from 57 trans-boundary rivers. Of them, 54 rivers flow from India, and the rest 3 from Myanmar. The total number of rivers and their branches in Bangladesh comes to around more than 700.

Floods have again become a common scenario in Bangladesh during monsoon in the last few years. Although these floods are viewed as localised ones, as years wear on they keep covering wider areas of land in the lower riparian country. Of late, these floods are no longer confined to a handful of rivers, that too in the country's northern or northeastern regions. The waters of these rain-fed rivers nowadays merge with that of the rivers in central Bangladesh as well. Although the waters are sourced in Teesta, Dharla, Atrai, Katatoa etc in the country's north, which flow originally from across the border, they in time get merged with some major rivers in Bangladesh. Along with the northern rivers, rivers in the country's central and southwestern regions these days have begun witnessing moderately severe flooding. On the other hand, the Surma, the largest river in the northeastern Bangladesh, causes immense damage to crop yields and sufferings to people in greater Sylhet. This year is no exception. According to flood monitoring authorities, one-third of Bangladesh remains under flood water at present. Nearly one-and-half months have passed. River experts still brace for swelling of downstream rivers in the coming days. According to Bangla seasonal cycle, the post-monsoon autumn is about to begin in the country. But large tracts of riverside rural areas still remain under water. A highly feared scourge that emerges during the recession phase of flood waters --- erosion of river banks, has already begun afflicting hundreds of riverside spots. In the past it was the croplands which used to bear the brunt. Nowadays, with development sprees continuing unabated in the rural areas, devouring of concrete structures by the swirling waters has become a normal spectacle. These structures include mainly educational institutions, government and private establishments, health complexes, residential buildings and assorted types of business centres.

As these scenarios portray, the 2020 flood could be considered a highly destabilising one in the last few years. River experts have long pointed the finger at geological factors for the rising intensity in rainfall in the upper riparian areas across the border. During the last 2/3 decades, excessive rainfall has distinguished certain areas in neighbouring India. They are mostly located near the northern parts of Bangladesh. The global climate change fallout hasn't spared this country. But its onslaughts have been confined to one or two tropical cyclones a year forming in the Bay of Bengal. Of them, two emerged as disastrous in terms of impact on human habitats and crops. They hit the southern Bangladesh in 2007 and 2009.

Except the two calamitous cyclones, Bangladesh in the recent times remained spared of the previously seasonal natural disasters. Thanks to this state of being free of natural calamities, Bangladesh has witnessed bumper yields of its main crops. But climate change prevailed in different parts of the world in erratic forms. Countries perennially known for being strange to floods began undergoing dreadful deluges. Although the Western and Central Europe and the USA had started being hit by severe floods since the late 20th century, countries in eastern Asia didn't lag behind. The new century greeted many countries in the region with their rivers' terrible metamorphoses.

It apparently makes many feel relieved that the effects of climate change and the atmospheric turbulence have not yet surfaced in Bangladesh. The hundred-year atmospheric records of the land, however, speak otherwise. The land passed through series of tropical storms and dreadful floods. That Bangladesh would one day enter a phase veritably free of environmental hazards may have eluded many in the distant past. But when it comes to global climate behaviours, few regions can afford to feel resigned for long. Bangladesh is one of them. Perhaps in accordance with this state of nature, vis-à-vis the global climate, the rivers in China and Japan have reverted to their earlier destructive nature. They remained amazingly tranquil and human-friendly not long ago.

The recent flooding of vast swathes of river banks in China, Mongolia and Japan, coupled with the loss of lives and the trails of devastation, emerges as surprise to the common people. Few have expected this abrupt change in the rivers' courses. The climate watchers, however, are not bemused. They are perhaps aware of the fact that rivers long remaining friendly might one day turn hostile, and it's a fact integral to nature's behaviour.

Upon putting these facts in perspective, any single neighbouring and semi-neighbouring country cannot be blamed solely for the frequency of flooding in Bangladesh. It's true that the obstruction of the water flow of a major Bangladesh river by a barrage built by a big neighbour once invited lots of woes for Bangladesh. But that phase is being eclipsed by the climate related adversities. Thanks to the climate change impacts, rains have been witnessing their intensity in the recent decades. This country is no exception. At the same time, the South Asia region cannot remain oblivious to an upsetting development taking place in the Himalayas in the north.

That the glacial melts of the mountain have been drastically changing the nature of the rivers downstream have been backed by geological findings. The increase in the monsoon rain in Bangladesh is viewed by environmental scientists as part of a normal cycle of nature, or as aberrant consequences of global warming. As for the task of dealing with the changes caused by global warming, a segment of the planet's climate change, Bangladesh cannot choose its own course all alone. The fate of the country is entwined with that of the others. The main issue to ponder now is finding ways to preempt the return of the earlier days of massive floods by forging stronger fraternity --- regional and global.

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