World Cup: Brazil, Germany or a Dark Horse?

There is a belief, rather a superstition, that the "universe influenced by the positions of stars" watches minutely what is happening on the planet Earth, especially during World Cup. The unseen watchman above in the outer space is believed to carry a memory of the past results of the game and tends to favour or disfavour future outcomes, in most cases favouring an underdog, defying the science of probability. Another school of thought: If something happens more frequently than normal during a period, then it will happen less frequently in the future, or that if something happens less frequently than normal during a period, then it will happen more frequently in the future. This is what is called the gambler's fallacy.

Fans are ready to do or believe anything to see their favourite team win the trophy. I knew a crazy supporter of Mohammedan Sporting Club. He used to keep continuous fasting and praying for two days without breaking his fast before an important game, where Mohammedan was a competitor, was over. Abdul Aziz was a football referee who also worked in Agrani Bank and was the Head Coach of Agrani Bank Football Team of which I was General Secretary. On one evening during a practice game Aziz in a whisper suggested me to spend a few bucks for one witch who had some magical power. To help our team win the game to be held next day I had agreed to satisfy the witch only to see our team defeated ignominiously.

Warlocks, the masters of the dark arts in using magic based on shadow and fire, are already doing their job to empower the teams they have been paid for. These warlocks are said to be summoning demons to vanquish those teams that could stand in the way of their favoured teams. These warlocks use their dark power, so to say, to inflict terrible suffering upon the enemies, corrupting and draining the vital energy from their victims. They look, as the believers deem, into the Void to face the horror and madness that dwells there and to turn them to their own use.

Antonio Vazquez, Mexico's self-proclaimed "Grand Warlock", has warned the World Cup would not only be a battle between football teams but a "magical war" between sorcerers trying to influence the results. Mexico's first game is against Cameroon on June 13, the day after the competition kicks off. "Imagine on June 13, the St Anthony's day, we the Mexicans have all the advantages to win against Cameroon. 3,000 warlocks will be there at the stadium to cast their spell" said Antonio Vazquez.

While fans, fortune tellers, astrologers and sorcerers are busy predicting which team would raise the trophy or which footballer is going to embrace the golden boot in the biggest sporting event on the planet the gamblers are secretly rubbing elbows with bookmakers to transect bets.

Football is not just a game; it's a moneymaking venture where billions of dollars are at stake. And where there is money bankers cannot sit idle. Big players in the banking world, equipped with their own pundits on economic forecasting, have already entered the prediction fray along with football fans, sorcerers, warlocks, bookies and gamblers.

The Goldman Sachs, a giant American investment bank and Deutsche Bank, a German goliath in global banking have come up with official reports containing their individual predictions.

Using datasets of different teams' world ranking, looking at the teams' current forms in terms of number of goals scored in the ten most recent matches, analysing performances at previous World Cups and placing greater emphasis on home advantage Goldman Sachs concluded that Brazil is the team most likely to win the World Cup; of course, they gave Brazil a 50 per cent chance. According to Goldman Sachs's prophecy, Argentina, Germany and Spain have the highest probability of reaching the semi-finals. But it is a surprise for Greeks to note that the bank gave a zero chance to Greece.

Deutsche Bank's favourite is also Brazil; but they have given Brazil only 12 per cent chance. It is not sure whether the German Bank's analysts factored in some data that could bias their prediction against a non-European team. Their analysts looked at historic performance at World Cups, placing heavy emphasis on recent forms based on the past four years' worth of results and the talent pool of players.

EA Sports, a computer-game company, has simulated the games using its "football engine" - virtually playing each and every game using the line-ups, formations and tactics it expects each manager to choose. Sticking their nose out, they expect Germany to beat Brazil 2-1, but they do not give a probability for that outcome.

With predictive modelling techniques, it is possible to predict anything from customers' shopping habits to Germany's performance in the World Cup. The only prerequisite is to have enough history and examples. The machines can now crunch data on a player's past performance like how long he possessed the ball, how many passes he grabbed or missed, how many times he failed to score a penalty goal, and how he could maintain his stamina in a weather akin to Brazil's and then paint a picture of his predictable performance in World Cup 2014.

The Weather may prove to be a deciding factor for the African and South and Central American teams to over-achieve. Fans will keep their eyes on teams from Ivory Coast, Ghana, Colombia, Honduras and Nigeria. Living near the equator in jungle climates, heat is their friend.

Whatever the predictions by sorcerers or economists are made, not less than 50 per cent of winning a game in World Cup would be down to luck alone. A misplaced pass or a miss to head the goal into the net from a corner shot can mean the difference between progressing to the next stage of the competition or dropping out altogether from the game, allowing (who knows?) a dark horse to claim victory.

Banks or the Bookies are not predicting the most poorly performing teams. Some naysayers say Asians will be the worst performing teams in this World Cup. They predict Japan, South Korea and Australia will all be eliminated in the first round. But Muslims all over the world are clinging to the hope that Iran may show some magic.

It is human nature to want to know what is going to happen in the future so we can prepare ourselves for it. But prediction science is often a pseudoscience. It does not do any good to those who turn the predictions into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Still we love futurology, knowing full well that none of the predictions may see the daylight. Still it helps one nudge aside the hard truth of practicalities to make room for indulging in some sort of sweet dreams.

The 20th FIFA World Cup begins on June 12 and ends on July 13. Participating in the tournament are teams of 31 nations along with Brazil. A total of 64 matches will take place in 12 cities of Brazil. There are more countries and players than one can conceivably shake a stick at. Even experienced soccer fans have trouble keeping track of all the players, who scattered across as many leagues in as many countries, that each have over a dozen teams.

On the opening match between Brazil and Croatia on June 12 we will watch the wizardry of Brazil's Neymar. Picking the best player on Brazil's World Cup squad, perhaps the most balanced team in the tournament, is silly. Neymar is hoped to lead the squad to victory. He's fast, strong, creative, poised and deadly. If anyone beats Brazil, it will be because they somehow could shut down Neymar. We will also see how Ivan Rakitic of Croatia, along with his partner-in-crime Luka Modric, will have to control the ball against Brazil.

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