Is there some secret wisdom behind the famous piece of advice variously credited to Aussie greats Don Bradman, Greg Chappell and Shane Warne: "If you win the toss, bat. If you are in doubt, think about it, then bat. If you have very big doubts, consult a colleague, then bat?" But World Cup 2019 is treading a different path to the solution, and also a different path than the last three editions.
In 2019, teams bowled first but they are not winning as much
In the 2019 World Cup, in 18 of the first completed 21 matches, or 86 per cent of the time, teams opted to chase, though here this choice is also perhaps influenced by the prospect of rain altering calculations midway.
Either way, the inclination to bowl first in 2019 is significantly higher than the previous three editions.
On just eight of these 18 occasions, or 38 per cent, did the team chase down the target put before them.
Yet, they keep choosing to bowl first, and this is one of the few ways in which this World Cup is throwing up new, interesting sidelights relating to choices made in the first innings, and how these play out over the course of the match.
First-innings scores in winning causes are increasingly becoming bigger. In the 2011 World Cup, for instance, the median score of teams batting first and winning-regardless of who won the toss-was 281 runs.
In the 2015 World Cup, this number increased to 332 runs. Which is where it has stayed in 2019 also. In 10 of the first 21 matches played in 2019, teams batting first have won.
Teams scoring more, but winning by less
In other words, even when they are losing while batting second, teams are coming closer to chasing a target than before. Which perhaps also explains their inclination to bowl first on winning the toss despite a low success rate.
For sides batting first, this World Cup has been one of extremes. In 11 of the 21 matches, the team batting first has scored less than 250 runs. In another 9 matches, they have exceeded 300 runs. In just one match has the first-innings score been between 251 and 300 runs.
'250-300 runs middle' disappears
Match outcomes also demonstrate a similar lopsidedness. In matches where the first-innings score is below 250 runs, teams are showing a greater tendency to chase them down. In 2019, of the 11 matches where the target was below 250 runs, teams chased them down on 10 occasions. Or, 91 per cent. In 2011, by comparison, teams managed to do that only 78 per cent of the time.
At the other end of the spectrum, a first-innings score of 300 is holding up very well in this World Cup, better than the previous two editions. Of the nine times that teams have scored more than 300 runs in the first innings in 2019, only once have they lost.
Defending below 250 difficult, but above 300 easy
The winning side on that occasion was Bangladesh, which has been putting in a doughty show through the tournament and which chased down 322 against the West Indies.
© 2024 - All Rights with The Financial Express
