India endured a loss to England on Sunday, and it dimmed the chance of Bangladesh to qualify for the semifinals of the ongoing ICC Men's World Cup in England and Wales.
Meanwhile, England's win against India means that Sri Lanka are out. Even if they win their two remaining matches and England lose to New Zealand, Sri Lanka will finish on the same number of points as England, but with one lesser win (because of two rained out matches), which is the first criteria for teams level on points.
With Australia already through, five teams are battling for the three remaining spots: India, New Zealand, England, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Among them, India and New Zealand are better placed, all but through, because of their superior net run rate - explained in more detail below - while England, Pakistan and Bangladesh are fighting for one slot.
Bangladesh still have chance
However, though not easy as it was expected, Bangladesh still have the chance to qualify for the semifinals.
With two matches to play, Bangladesh secured seven points from the matches they have played in the World Cup so far. Mashrafe Bin Mortaza-led Bangladesh are now at number six on the point table.
To confirm a semifinals berth, they have to surpass Pakistan and England, who are at number five and four on the points table respectively with 9 and 10 points.
Bangladesh still have two matches to play. If they come up victorious in both of them, they will have 11 points to their name. At the same time, they have to expect England's defeat to New Zealand.
Though the route that Bangladesh have to pass to secure a semifinals berth is very tough, they have no other way left to go through.
Other three places still complicated
Australia are the only team in this World Cup who have already confirmed their place in the semifinals stage. But the other three places are still complicated.
India, who are at number two on the points table, still need a point to confirm their place. They have two matches to play- one against Bangladesh and the other one against Sri Lanka. If they lose both of them, they might be eliminated from the race, though, it is unlikely to happen.
In contrast, if India win two of their remaining matches, they will have a place secured in the semifinals stage and Bangladesh will be eliminated from the race.
New Zealand, who are at number three on the points table, also need a point to secure a semifinals berth. They only have one match to play and that is against England. If they lose that match, England will go through, and New Zealand's fate will depend on Bangladesh's results against India and Pakistan.
Pakistan, who are at number four on the points table, still have the chance to end the league stage game being one of the top four teams. If they win their last game against Bangladesh and England, New Zealand lose theirs, Pakistan will find a place in the last four.
However, the race for the last three spots of semifinals stage is really complicated right now.
England still qualify if they lose to New Zealand
For that, they will need to hope India beat Bangladesh and Bangladesh beat Pakistan. Such a scenario would have both Bangladesh and Pakistan on nine points, with England qualifying as the fourth team with 10 points.
The weather is set fair at Chester le Street for tomorrow (Wednesday)'s clash between England and New Zealand. Even if there is a no-result, England will still make it because of their superior net run rate, compared to Bangladesh and Pakistan.
Net-run-rate scenarios among teams on 11 points
If India lose their two remaining games and if New Zealand lose to England, then three teams - India, New Zealand and Pakistan/Bangladesh - will finish on 11, vying for two spots.
If Pakistan beat Bangladesh and are the third team on 11 points, then New Zealand and India will qualify, as Pakistan's NRR of -0.792 is far too much of a handicap.
For them to nudge ahead, India will have to lose each of their matches by around 150 runs (or the sum of their losses will have to be around 300), and Pakistan will have to beat Bangladesh by around 200 runs.
For Pakistan to go past New Zealand, the result of the two relevant matches - Pakistan beating Bangladesh and England beating New Zealand - will have to be in the region of around 220 runs each.
For Bangladesh, the NRR situation isn't quite as dire, but it is still rather improbable. If, for example, the results of all three matches - Bangladesh's wins versus India and Pakistan, and India's defeat against Sri Lanka - are in the region of around 75 runs, then Bangladesh will go ahead of India on NRR. To move past New Zealand, Bangladesh will need the results of the three relevant games - wins in their last two games, and New Zealand's loss to England - to be in the region of around 80 runs. The more immediate battle, though, is among England, Pakistan and Bangladesh for the fourth spot.
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