Missile test showcases sensitive Chinese submarine capabilities key to nuclear deterrent

FE Team | Published: July 10, 2026 22:30:22

HONG KONG, July 10 (Reuters): China's submarine-fired ballistic missile test into the southern Pacific on Monday gave its military leadership an opportunity to examine some of the most complex and sensitive operations of its evolving nuclear deterrent, analysts and diplomats say.
Commanding, controlling and communicating with nuclear-armed submarines attempting to operate undetected pose immense challenges, they say - something felt acutely by a Chinese Communist Party leadership where the military's political loyalty is paramount.
"This aspect is certainly something that would have been very much evaluated, besides looking at the actual technical capabilities of the missile and submarine," said Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
"There are still challenges ahead but it would seem they are getting close to an operational strike capability here...they are probably trying to demonstrate that even if they can't get into a position to hit the continental US, they could still target Guam and Hawaii."
China's test firing of the missile armed with a dummy warhead drew criticism from regional powers, with the US saying it was an intercontinental ballistic missile that landed in the southern Pacific Ocean.
Chinese state media and officials described the test as a "routine" military drill that was not directed at a specific target or country, and was handled professionally.
Dismissing some reports as "pure distortion and hype", the Chinese defence ministry said in response to Reuters' questions on Friday that the test was made in accordance with international law and practice.
"It should be emphasized that China's efforts to modernize its nuclear forces are intended to safeguard national strategic security and maintain global strategic stability," the defence ministry said.
It was China's most significant long-range ballistic missile test since September 2024, when the People's Liberation Army fired a weapon into the southern Pacific Ocean from a mobile launcher on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.
Monday's missile was fired from one of China's six Type-094 nuclear-powered submarines known as SSBNs, said analysts and academics. State media said it was a strategic missile submarine (SSBN), but did not identify the class. An SSBN is a large nuclear-powered submarine designed to launch nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Regional military attaches and analysts say China's SSBN operations, based out of Hainan Island, are among the most closely watched elements of its ongoing military modernisation, given their importance to China's nuclear deterrent to ensure a second-strike capability.
If its nuclear-armed submarines can operate undetected, China can strike back if its more extensive land-based weapons are destroyed in a first strike by an adversary.