NEW YORK, July 12 (AP): The United Nations estimated Monday that next year India, with a current population of 1.412 billion, will surpass China, with a current population of 1.426 billion, but Wilmoth said there is more uncertainty about that date than the Earth reaching 8 billion inhabitants on Nov. 15.
Wilmoth said the U.N. moved the date forward from 2027, especially as a result of China's 2020 census. India had been planning its census in 2021, but he said it was delayed because of the pandemic. The U.N. will reassess its projection after it takes place.
The U.N. projects that in 2050 the United States will remain the third most populous country in the world, behind India and China. Nigeria is projected to be No. 4, followed by Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh. Russia and Mexico, which are in the top 10 most populous countries in 2022, are projected to lose their ninth and 10th spots in 2050.
"The population of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050," the report says.
"In countries with at least half a million population, the largest relative reductions in population size over that period, with losses of 20% or more, are expected to take place in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine."
In other highlights, the report said global life expectancy improved almost 9 years from 1990 - to 72.8 years for babies born in 2019 - and is projected to reach 77.2 years in 2050 as death rates continue to decrease. But in 2021, it said, life expectancy in the world's poorest countries lagged 7 years behind the global average.
