Russia’s missile test fuels US fears of an isolated Putin

MOSCOW, Apr 21 (Reuters): President Vladimir Putin's calculated move to test-launch a new intercontinental ballistic missile, declaring it a warning to those in the West who "try to threaten our country," fed into a growing concern inside the Biden administration: that Russia is now so isolated from the rest of the world that Putin sees little downside to provocative actions.

Even before the missile launch, US officials and foreign leaders were weighing whether their success in cutting Russia off from much of the global economy, making it a diplomatic pariah, could further fuel Putin's willingness to assert his country's strength. The first launch of the nuclear-capable Sarmat missile was just the latest example of how he has tried to remind the world of his capabilities - in space, in cyberspace and along the coast of Europe - despite early setbacks on the ground in Ukraine.

"He is now in his own war logic," Chancellor Karl Nehammer of Austria said last week after meeting Putin in Russia. He described the Russian president as more determined than ever to counter what he sees as a growing threat from the West and to recapture Russia's sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.

CIA Director William Burns said last week that "every day, Putin demonstrates that declining powers can be at least as disruptive as rising ones," adding that his "risk appetite has grown as his grip on Russia has tightened."

In private, US officials have been more direct about the potential for an isolated Russian leader to lash out in further destabilising ways. "We have been so successful in disconnecting Putin from the global system that he has even more incentive to disrupt it beyond Ukraine," one senior intelligence official said in a recent conversation, insisting on anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments. "And if he grows increasingly desperate, he may try things that don't seem rational."

Putin, assessments delivered to the White House have concluded, believes he is winning, according to a senior US official who asked for anonymity to discuss intelligence findings.

He is certainly acting that way.

It is hardly surprising that Putin has not backed down in the face of economic sanctions and measures to cut off his country from technology needed for new weapons and now some consumer goods. He has often shrugged off Western sanctions, arguing he can easily manage around them.

"We can already confidently say that this policy toward Russia has failed," Putin said Monday. "The strategy of an economic blitzkrieg has failed."