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The population dilemma

Mahmudur Rahman | November 12, 2018 00:00:00


Winston Churchill had few phrases of positives, if any about undivided India for all the riches it brought to the so-called empire. One of the worst was that we 'breed like rabbits'. The developing world is unitedly guilty of bringing more people into this world than we can feed. And that allows the developed world to take the high moral ground to preach from the pulpit of superiority. Well, guess what? 'The times, they are a'changing'. Two decades or more ago the combination of the 'self', single living, living together and career focus caught the attention of demographers that predicted the world population will grow, albeit lopsidedly. The forecasts were correct.

A world made lonelier by social media coming in the way of personal interaction is facing the stark reality that persons born around the turn of the century are less interested in sex and that which follows naturally is childbirth. This is true for some fifty-nine countries of the world, leaving villages and small towns, facing dwindling and ageing populations. The very migration that is causing consternation all the way from the United States to Europe is actually the only answer to not just nationalistic goals of claiming back that which was theirs but also plugging the yawning gaps that will inevitably emerge as the clawback process really sets in motion.

Mr. Donald Trump while rebuking CNN's reporter recently openly admitted his country needed migrants. Japan has just reformed its migration laws because it lacks both skilled and unskilled workforce as fewer children are born and the ageing population grows. This isn't the end of the road either. Per woman child birth has dropped globally from 4.5 to 2.5 and that's after the aggregate of growing numbers in parts of the world and declining numbers elsewhere. And the obsession with Artificial Intelligence (AI) as the next best thing will last as long as the great tech bubble that took the world by storm and then whimpered away. If Japan with its advanced science can worry about it, other countries ought to have similar worries. With more development, education opportunities increase and also job opportunities increase as does access to contraception. The world's population isn't shrinking but where it is, societal changes may be a way forward. If people retire early and there aren't enough entering the job market, taxation to support elderly care won't be available thereby further stagnating life expectancy.

In a way, the relative lack of speed with which a section of the world has industrialised is just as well. That could be one reason why the environmental catastrophe is still a few years away. Automation answers several questions but the sheer power of the logic of the human brain can probably never be replicated. That's why AI, too, is being developed by humans and not by robots. And when the life-cycle of AI tools expires, it'll be humans that will have to figure out environment-friendly ways of disposing of them just as most religions do with human beings. China was initially criticised and then applauded for its 'one child' policy. The largest populated country, too, is having second thoughts.

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