Merkel's Bavarian allies face threat of poll debacle

MUNICH, Oct 14 (AFP): Voters in the southern German state of Bavaria went to the polls Sunday in an election where Chancellor Angela Merkel's arch-conservative CSU allies were bracing for heavy losses.

The Christian Social Union (CSU), who have almost single-handedly ruled the wealthy Alpine beer-and-lederhosen state since the late 1950s, are expected to lose their absolute majority, polls say.

The other partner in Merkel's fragile 'grand coalition', the Social Democrats, were also set to do poorly while the far-right and anti-immigration AfD looked certain to enter the state assembly.

The biggest winners, however, may be the left-leaning Greens who have doubled their poll ratings to 19 per cent since the last state elections, which would make them the second strongest party.

Poll booths opened at 0600 GMT for 9.5 million eligible voters. Large numbers had said they were still undecided shortly before the vote, and first projections were expected from 1600 GMT.

If the polls prove correct, the Bavarian election will mark another step in the demise of 'big-tent' mainstream parties and the fragmentation of the political landscape, as seen in other western democracies.

For Merkel, now often labelled a lame duck leader in her fourth and final term, it would further raise political pressure two weeks ahead of another dangerous vote, in the central state of Hesse.

Parliamentary speaker Wolfgang Schaeuble, a veteran Merkel ally, has conceded that the two state polls will "affect national politics and thus the reputation of the chancellor," who seeks re-election as Christian Democrats (CDU) party chief in December.

The CSU, Bavaria's sister party to Merkel's CDU, has long employed a folksy brand of beerhall politics to monopolise power in the state known for its fairytale castles, Oktoberfest, corporate champions like Siemens and BMW and the Bayern Munich football club.

It has preached economic stability and traditional conservative values in the mainly Catholic state, promoting crucifixes in school classrooms and bans on wearing Islamic veils in public.

As a consistent vote winner, the party from the "free state" of Bavaria has confidently co-governed in Berlin with Merkel's CDU.

But the dynamic changed after mid-2015, when the region bordering Austria suddenly became Germany's frontline state for a mass influx of mostly Muslim refugees and migrants, half of them from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

After initial scenes of welcome, the influx sparked a xenophobic backlash that drove the nationwide rise of the AfD, which in last year's general elections took millions of votes to weaken all mainstream parties.

The CSU has since also attacked Merkel's initially liberal refugee policy with a ferocity that has grown as the Bavaria election neared, in an attempt to recapture voters drifting to the AfD.

As the spat escalated, the CSU's Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has provoked rifts that drove her wobbly coalition to the brink of collapse.

Unusually, Merkel has been largely absent from the CSU election campaign, which in its final rally on Friday invited instead Austria's right-wing Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.

Polls have signalled that the CSU's hardline rhetoric and brinkmanship have backfired badly.

The latest survey, by public broadcaster ZDF on Thursday, gave the CSU 34 per cent-down from 47.7 per cent four years ago.

While the AfD polled at 10 per cent, the surprise stars have been the Greens, a one-time hippie and peacenik collective that has matured into a mainstream political force, with 19 per cent support.

As the CSU looks to many voters like yesterday's party, state premier Markus Soeder has toned down his shrill rhetoric about "asylum tourists" and pointed to "Berlin politics" for the poor outlook, heightening speculation he is setting up his long-time rival Seehofer as the scapegoat.

Seehofer, 69, has meanwhile declared he intends to "complete my mission" as interior minister, and presumably keep needling Merkel.

If polls prove correct, the CSU will have to find new coalition partners, possibly the conservative Free Voters, the pro-business FDP or the SPD.