The last two months have witnessed India's politicians and geo-strategists creating their own national geo-strategic paradigm. On September 06, talks were held in New Delhi between US and Indian Foreign and Defence Ministers, loosely described as 2 plus 2 dialogue. Writing for .online magazine New Eastern Outlook, Vladimir Terehov noted that "whenever any states launch negotiations in this format, it is usually a sign that those two countries trust each other to a certain degree and have managed to established bilateral ties of excellent quality." This also reflected development of relations between these two countries over the past two decades.
One remembers in this context the shift in India's perception of relations with the USA during 1998-2004 when a rightist dispensation emerged with Vajpayee taking over the helm in Delhi. "That tilt continued for some years when Manmohan Singh was the prime minister, as it was during his stint that India and the US signed the landmark bilateral civil nuclear deal marking a major step towards integrating New Delhi into the world atomic trade," noted Pallab Bhattacharya, a special correspondent of an English-language Dhaka daily. .
Since Modi's assumption of power, India's outreach to the USA has been more pronounced. Defence analysts have noted that in the last few years, India and the USA have signed agreements for sourcing military transport planes from the USA. This September has also seen talks between these two countries on India purchasing Apache helicopters. They also agreed after the talks to sign an agreement for exchange of sensitive military communication and have also announced plans for military exercises to be carried out in 2019. This changing situation has seen the USA rising to become India's second largest arms supplier.
However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not forgotten one important facet that continues to guide that country's perception of friendship. India knows that deep down there is great respect and friendship among the common Indian population not only for the historic role played by the Soviet Union till 1991 towards India but also for the support given since then to India on all aspects by Russia.
There are several dimensions in the current evolving situation with regard to India's bilateral relations with the USA, Russia, China and Iran. These are based on perceived national priorities.
RUSSIAN DEAL: On October 05, 2018, after discussion between Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Putin, the two States signed a pact to build six more nuclear reactors at a new site in India. Russian state-owned reactor manufacturer Rosatom has stated that the two countries also want to boost nuclear cooperation in third countries and share new nuclear technologies. It has also been hinted that they are considering building nuclear plants together.
Rosatom has offered to build its third generation VVER reactor on the new site and will consider increasing the level of participation of Indian companies in this project. Discussions apparently are not yet final as India has not chosen their new site uptil now. If confirmed, the agreement, according to nuclear scientists, would be one of the biggest nuclear industry deals in recent years, and would bind the two countries for decades. It may be mentioned here that two Russian-built VVER-1000 reactors have been in commercial operation in Kudankulam in Southern India since 2014 and 2017 respectively. Construction on two more has started last year with a target for commercial start-up in 2025 and 2026.
Russia's Rosatom, it may be observed, has over the past five years become the world's largest nuclear reactor builder because of the on-going financial problems being faced by the big western firm Westinghouse. This has cramped their ability to develop nuclear plants abroad. Rosatom, on the other hand, currently operates 35 reactors in Russia with a combined capacity of 28 Gigawatt and has announced plans to build another 36 nuclear power plants in 12 countries.
The 24-hour official visit of President Putin to New Delhi also saw both countries inking a US$ 5.0 billion agreement for Russia to supply the formidable S-400 air defence system. This will mean Russia providing five S-400 missile systems, four Stealth Frigates and permitting AK-103 assault rifles being manufactured in India. India's Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa has in the meantime indicated that deliveries of the S-400 systems would begin in 24 months. It has also come to light that in October, 2016, the two countries apparently concluded Inter-Governmental Agreements (IGA) for S-400 systems and the four Stealth Frigates. This has now led to a full commercial contract.
Defence analysts have indicated that India needs the sophisticated S-400 to fill critical gaps in its defence capabilities, in view of China's rise and perceived threats from Pakistan (against whom India has fought three wars and still continues to face tension on the Kashmir Line of Control).Some have also pointed out that last year India and China had a military stand-off over a Himalayan plateau claimed by both China and Bhutan (a close ally of India).China has also perturbed India by loaning vast amounts of money to Sri Lanka and creating a special rapport with the new government in Nepal.
Another significant factor has also generated interest among space scientists. Both Russia and India have agreed to cooperate with regard to India's plan for a manned space mission. Modi has been laying emphasis on this in view of international recognition of India's recent successes in space exploration.
The United States for obvious reasons has been monitoring India-Russia developments carefully. They have also warned that these deals could attract sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). This legal regime restricts defence purchases from Russia, Iran and North Korea.
It may be mentioned in this regard that, last month in September, the US Administration imposed sanctions on China as it started taking delivery of SU-35 fighter jets and S-400 systems from Russia.
This Russia- India initiative has also drawn special attention because during the 2 plus 2 dialogue in September, USA and India signed the third foundational agreement - Communications Compatability and Security Agreement (COMCASA)- in addition to announcing several measures to operationalised the Major Defense Partner Status, indicative of the difficult balance India hopes to maintain amid deepening US-Russia tensions.
Tthe Russian and Indian leaders are believed to have discussed the many challenges existing in Afghanistan and the need to overcome them. Apparently, this included Moscow's push for talks with the Taliban. India, in this context, is understood to have pointed out Pakistan's lack of cooperation in resolving the sensitive situation in Afghanistan and also Pakistan's lack of interest in controlling terrorism in its bordering region with India and Afghanistan. Such observations by India appear to have upset Pakistan. On October 07, two days after Putin's visit, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Qureshi has pointed out that the US or Russia should not view their ties with Pakistan from the perspective of Indian or Afghanistan lens. Instead, it would be more appropriate for these two countries to acknowledge Pakistan's contribution towards peace and stability in this region.
After the Putin visit, the USA is finding itself in an awkward position when it comes to India. This dimension is becoming complicated as USA wants to bolster ties with New Delhi to counter China's growing assertiveness - something that also seems to have rattled India.
IRANIAN OIL: The strategic autonomy in India's foreign policy and putting national interest first has also been reflected in India's reported decision to buy nine million barrels of Iranian oil in November. This indicates that the world's third biggest oil importer will continue to purchase crude from Iran despite US sanctions coming into force from November 04. The Indian media has reported that refineries have already placed November nominations to lift 1.25 million tons of oil from Iran. India's Oil Corporation is also supposedly making preparations to lift six million barrels of Iranian oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, a further three million barrels.
For India, it is no longer a question of keeping US, Russia or China happy, at the cost of the others. It has now become an issue where national security has to be maintained through the process of a delicate balance. At the same time there is also the ideological approach of "India First" where other countries will desist from impacting on India's vision of its own strategic needs.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
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