The development of El-Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific threatens to cause extreme weather across the globe, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Under the influence of the rapidly strengthening El Nino, many parts of the world are likely to experience heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events starting from July to September. Bangladesh is no exception to this influence of sea temperature rise. Statistics of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) show that precipitation in the just concluded June was the lowest in the past seven years with 29.4 per cent less rainfall than the average.
If the trend of decreasing rainfall is somewhat uneven in this part of the world, rising temperature in Europe is quite consistent. This year, that continent, particularly the region consisting France, Britain and Germany, has been under a severe spell of heatwave. Scores of people in those three countries drowned when they tried to get relief from extreme heat in lakes, rivers and private pools. Central Europe is also experiencing a heatwave with Poland recording 40.5 degree Celsius. But Pulluau in western France recorded the highest temperature at 43.8 degree Celsius.
So the WMO's warning of extreme and capricious weather should not fall on deaf ears anymore. The United Nations' weather watchdog has rightly activated its weather information services and early warning systems in order to help governments to brace for the hostile weather ahead. Based on its warnings, governments and humanitarian agencies will be able to devise support plans for farmers and vulnerable communities.
Drastic drop in rainfall, as predicted by the UN agency, this monsoon in the Indian sub-continent is indeed a cause for concern. Rainless monsoon means drought. This is a prospect farmers do not like to face anywhere in the world. Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have experienced severe drought in the past but this year it may be worse because of scanty rainfall or its absence. Farmers in wide areas of the sub-continent will be direct victims of this weather phenomenon but the economies of the countries concerned will also suffer.
Although not all regions on the planet are affected by El Nino, a condition that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the Indian sub-continent has to suffer under its influence. Changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns upset cultivation of the main crops in this region, threatening food security of not only farmers but also of others who depend on cereals and vegetables produced by the growers.
A warning for drought well in advance can give farmers the option to switch over to drought-tolerant crops or crops that can be harvested early before the full impact of El Nino is felt or afterwards when it starts dissipating. In this task, local experts can maintain a liaison with the UN agency and its panel responsible for mitigating weather-related crop losses. A national plan has to be devised for meeting drought, floods and other natural calamities. There is no guarantee that while drought prevails in some areas, there will be no heavy rains or floods in other areas of the sub-continent or even within a country.
Bangladesh has long opted for agriculture far removed from conventional cultivation. But with the climate growing more and more hostile, its strategy for cropping should also be made smarter and sound. The good news is that the El Nino phenomenon is not a permanent affair; it has a cycle of two to seven years lasting between seven and 12 months. However, this pattern seems to be undergoing some changes. Under the influence of El Nino, 2024 was the hottest year on record, registering temperature at 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The year 2023 was the second-hottest year on record.
This gives a mixed feeling. The world could overcome the hottest spell of two consecutive years. So it can do so this year also. But this does not mean the world should feel relaxed. There is an urgent need for transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels. The mankind cannot afford the cost of environmental pollution from fossil fuels. To avoid unprecedented catastrophes, the world community should make its choice for renewable energy clear and loud.
nilratanhalder2000@yahoo.com