The incumbent BNP government is preparing to unveil an ambitious budget of Tk 9.30 trillion for the fiscal year 2026-27, which is about 18 per cent larger than the previous year's outlay. As the first national budget of the newly elected administration, it has garnered widespread interest and expectation, as it will reveal the government's broader economic vision, fiscal priorities and development strategy for the years ahead.
The government has set an ambitious goal of transforming Bangladesh into a $1 trillion economy by 2034, up from the current size of around $470 billion. Achieving that target within a decade would require annual GDP growth of nearly 10 per cent. This aspiration has apparently motivated policymakers to begin their tenure with an expansive budget.
In fact, successive governments have shown a penchant for announcing ever-expanding budgets, financed through heavy borrowing. No doubt, sustained economic growth reflects the expansion of economic activities, which can improve living standards and enhance a country's international image, thereby attracting greater foreign investment. However, GDP growth alone does not present the full picture of national development in the way indicators such as the Human Development Index (HDI) do.
During its 16-year rule, the Awami League government persistently boasted of impressive economic growth and development achievements, particularly through implementation of mega projects. However, a 2023 survey by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) revealed that when the government was basking in the glow of growth and development, nearly one-fifth of the population was living below the poverty line. At the same time, the country's healthcare system remained in a pitiable condition, while the quality of education falling alarmingly.
The poverty situation has further deteriorated in recent years due to political instability, widespread closure of factories and job loss, and an investment slowdown during the tenure of the interim government. Last year, a report of the Power and Participation Research Centre stated that the poverty rate had risen to 28 per cent, meaning that more than one-fourth of the population was living below the poverty line. Similarly, the World Bank, in its latest assessment, stated that the poverty rate in Bangladesh increased from 20.5 per cent in fiscal year 2023-24 to 21.2 per cent in 2024-25.The ongoing global economic uncertainty and energy crisis may further aggravate the situation.
Many, therefore, are of the view that policymakers need to pause for a reflection: does the size of the budget or the economy matter to ordinary people?
For ordinary people, having food in the stomach is far more important than growth rate statistics. What the public truly wants to know is whether the prices of essential commodities will decline, whether adequate employment opportunities will be created, and whether doing business will become easier and less burdensome, and whether public offices can be freed from corruption. These are the everyday concerns of ordinary people, but they receive little attention.
Development does not only mean the construction of big bridges or highways. The authorities must come out of this stereotype. Of course, mega projects are necessary. The Padma Bridge and the Dhaka Metro Rail have brought revolutionary changes to the transport sector. However, the construction or paving of a small rural road that helps farmers transport their produce to markets, the regular presence of doctors and functional medical equipment in union-level hospitals, and the appointment of skilled teachers in educational institutions can also make a significant difference. Moreover, it often takes years for mega projects to yield benefits, whereas the impact of such small-scale developments can be immediate. Therefore, while thinking big, the government should not overlook the importance of small initiatives that can make a big difference.
A major blot on the country's healthcare sector is the exceptionally high level of out-of-pocket expenditure, which stands at around 69 per cent - one of the highest in the world. This means that people have to bear the lion's share of their medical expenses. As a result, access to healthcare often depends on personal financial capacity rather than existing medical facilities. According to estimates, excessive commercilisation of healthcare and heavy medical expenses push about 3.7 per cent of the population below the poverty line each year. Although the health budget continues to increase annually, the situation in rural community clinics or public hospitals remains largely unchanged. If community clinics and public hospitals were made fully functional, if the presence of doctors and proper distribution of free medicines were ensured, the country's healthcare landscape could change significantly within a short time.
The situation is equally concerning in the education sector. Although allocations are increasing every year, a large portion of the allocation goes towards infrastructure development. Teacher training and evaluation of teaching performance have long remained low priorities. A recent UNICEF study revealed that students entering secondary education from primary schools lack basic foundational skills. In other words, 91 per cent of Grade 5 students progressing to secondary level could not correctly answer half of the Grade 5 mathematics questions. Similarly, 65 per cent performed poorly in Bangla. Building more infrastructure will not address this learning crisis.
Therefore, the budget that is to be placed next month in parliament must place greater emphasis on people-centred development rather than merely pursuing higher growth figures and larger economic projections. Curbing inflation, ensuring food and energy security, generating employment opportunities, and improving healthcare and education services should receive the highest priority. The true success of a budget lies not in increasing the size of the economy or the economic growth rate, but in the extent to which it can ease the suffering of ordinary people and improve their quality of life. Economic growth becomes meaningful only when its benefits reach the common people and help build a more equitable, humane and inclusive society.
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