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Imports slide amid sluggish business

Low imports help inflation to stay high


JASIM UDDIN HAROON | December 21, 2024 00:00:00


Import continued to stay stymied, with the November volume valued down at US$5.27 billion, as private-sector businesses struggled on to gather momentum in business activity.

Economists say subdued import helps in keeping inflation high and prices exorbitant-an economic cycle with an adverse domino effect that worries Bangladesh's development financiers and consumers alike.

In November 2024, by official count, the value of import transactions through the opening of letters of credit (LCs) stood at $5.27 billion in a fall from $5.6 billion in the same month of 2023.

In the five months from July to November this year, the total value of LCs opened for import trade also declined slightly, by less than 1.0 per cent, amounting to $27.97 billion.

In terms of LC settlement, import payments dropped by over 1.0 per cent or $27.88 billion during the period, according to data from the central bank.

Bankers attribute the subdued import activity to sluggish private-sector credit growth because of an apparent pause in business-and investment- expansion planning.

They also note that political unrest in July and August-leading to the regime change-also was coupled with factory vandalism and economic uncertainty, further dampening business activity.

However, there has been a silver lining on the horizons of optimism for a rebound with the dust settling gradually.

Bankers and experts believe import volumes may rise in the coming months as the government has withdrawn taxes on several essential goods and Ramadan, a peak consumption period, approaching.

"We expect import to pick up as the foreign-exchange market stabilizes gradually," says Dr M Masrur Reaz, the founder and chairman of Policy Exchange of Bangladesh, a private think-tank.

And increased imports could help ease inflation, as Bangladesh relies heavily on imported goods to sustain its economy.

Inflation increased to 11.38 per cent with food inflation at 12.8 per cent in November 2024.

Despite the cautious optimism, some key segments showed a sharp decline-significantly, in the import of capital goods.

Imports of capital machinery fell by 29 per cent to $690 million during the five months through November this year.

Intermediate goods imports also dropped significantly, by over 12 per cent to $1.69 billion, during the same period.

The consumer-goods imports dropped more than 3.34 per cent to $2.6 billion during the period.

On the other hand, industrial raw-material imports showed 4.8-percent increase, amounting to $9.8 billion for the July-November period this year, indicating some recovery in manufacturing activity.

As the political and economic situation stabilizes, experts remain hopeful that import growth will support broader economic recovery.

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