Analysts interested in monitoring the continuing crisis in the Rakhine area in Myanmar consider that the evolving scenario is casting a long shadow on hopes of repatriation of Rohingya refugees. They have started suggesting that prospects for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar are dimming as the Rakhine state descends deeper into conflict and humanitarian crisis.
Some have also suggested that since July 2023, nearly 60,000 Rohingyas have fled to Bangladesh amid acute food shortage, prolonged farming disruptions, and recruitment drives by the Arakan Army (AA). This ongoing turmoil is underscoring the escalating challenges facing both Myanmar and Bangladesh in addressing the plight of the stateless minority.
It is correct that the Bangladesh government has been officially opposing the accepting of new Rohingya arrivals and is also struggling to stem their flow of refugees but there is another continuing dimension which is exacerbating the situation. These new refugees are entering through unofficial routes. Corruption at the border is also aggravating the situation.
Foreign Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain has acknowledged the government's challenges on the border. It has also been noted that despite Dhaka's repeated calls for a sustainable resolution, conditions in Myanmar are moving in the opposite direction. With the Arakan Army nearing full control of Rakhine, the possibility of creating a safe and stable environment for Rohingyas to return is rapidly vanishing.
Bangladesh in the meantime has offered to provide support for rebuilding the Rakhine State economy, emphasising the importance of peace, stability, and democracy in Myanmar as a foundation for commencing the repatriation of forcibly displaced Rohingyas to their homeland. "Bangladesh has every interest to see lasting peace, stability and democracy in Myanmar, and a conducive environment in Rakhine State for the Rohingya to have confidence to go back there in safety and dignity", said Foreign Adviser Md. Touhid Hossain. He made this call when speaking at an Informal Consultation at the Ministerial level among Myanmar and its five neighbouring countries recently in Bangkok. The six-nation consultation was held in the third week of December, 2024 under the Chairmanship of the Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa. The meeting was also attended, among others, by the Myanmar Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Than Swe.
Touhid Hossain has also offered Bangladesh's assistance in rebuilding Rakhine's economy when the time is appropriate, reiterating Dhaka's call for a comprehensive roadmap for Rohingya repatriation, with stability in Rakhine as a priority. He has also urged ASEAN and other key regional actors to play a proactive role in restoring peace, security and democracy in Myanmar. The Bangladesh Foreign Adviser expressed concerns over the protracted Rohingya humanitarian situation. He also raised serious concerns over the ongoing armed conflicts along the border areas as well as transnational crimes, involving trafficking in persons, drugs and arms.
In this context, the Bangladesh Adviser also reiterated the three-point proposals made by the Interim Government Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus during the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York in September 2024. In November, Bangladesh's determined lobbying resulted in the United Nations General Assembly adopting a Resolution calling for a "high-level Conference" in 2025. It was also observed that the Conference would contribute to "a comprehensive, innovative, concrete and time-bound plan for sustainable resolution of the crisis, including the voluntary, safe and dignified return of Rohingya Muslims to Myanmar", according to the Resolution. Both Bangladesh and Qatar were mentioned as potential venues for the conference, which the Bangladesh government said it expects to take place in September or October, 2025 with arrangements finalised by April.
Organisers of this Rohingya Conference, however, now face two immediate questions. First, how to define the scope of the conference? Second, how to ensure that the perspectives of the de facto authorities in Rakhine are reflected?
Estimates indicate that there are 2.8 million Rohingya around the world, of whom just 23 per cent remain in their home country of Myanmar - a vivid reminder of the decades of brutal oppression and discrimination. Aside from Myanmar, the four countries with the largest Rohingya populations are Bangladesh with 1.1 million, Pakistan with 400,000, Saudi Arabia 340,000 and Malaysia 210,000.
The situation of the Rohingya, however, differs between these countries. In Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, for example, most Rohingya arrived several decades ago and their children have never seen their homeland. MSF found that while 76 per cent Rohingyas who fled within the past five years wanted to return to Myanmar, this fell to just 28 per cent among those who have spent more than 20 years abroad. This suggests that solutions should be tailor-made and guided by the objectives of the 2018 Global Compact on Refugees, including easing pressure on host countries, enhancing refugee self-reliance, expanding access to third-country solutions, and supporting conditions in countries of origin for return in safety and dignity.
Given the Rohingya refugee burden Bangladesh has been shouldering since the 1970s, its demand for speedy and effective repatriation is understandable. The UN resolution is a welcome effort to ensure the Rohingya crisis remains a global priority. It is also notable because there is presently no credible international dialogue about the crisis.
The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic Rakhine armed group, has apparently hardened its grip over much of the state, further destabilising the region. Reports suggest the AA is also preparing to declare either independence or autonomy, intensifying clashes with other factions, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation. These developments, coupled with Myanmar's broader political upheaval, have rendered efforts to facilitate a dignified return for the Rohingya increasingly vain.
It needs to be recalled at this point that Bangladesh has been hosting nearly 1.2 million Rohingya refugees since the mass exodus triggered by a Myanmar military crackdown in 2017. Despite international pressure and periodic talks, progress on repatriation has been negligible. Observers are now arguing that without engaging the AA, now a crucial stakeholder in Rakhine, any meaningful resolution to the crisis remains unlikely. Some have also stressed that ignoring the AA's role in the region's power dynamics could promote failure rather than any success related to repatriation.
International Relations analyst Professor Imtiaz Ahmed has made some interesting observations about the evolving scenario. He has pointed out that it is crucial not only to establish communication with all ethnic groups in Myanmar but also understand that "the fragmented sovereignty within Myanmar has created a complex situation, and our security forces already have some connections with the ethnic minorities there. If we had engaged with the Arakan Army, the situation might have unfolded differently. Our communication should not be limited to the AA. We must build connections with other ethnic groups as well. These relationships do not necessarily have to be open; they can be developed through various discrete channels. The AA's control over a significant area is a reality that we must acknowledge. While key strategic points remain under Tatmadaw's control. Communication does not need to be confined to traditional diplomatic channels." He has also added that incentives should be offered to encourage the AA to facilitate the repatriation of Rohingyas.
There is also another dimension that needs to be remembered by the relevant authorities in their efforts to resolve the repatriation crisis. We are currently in an awkward position. We need to clearly understand that resolving this issue will be impossible without the involvement of China and India, as both nations have aligned interests in this matter.
There is also a different aspect that needs to be recognised. Inside Myanmar, over 400,000 Rohingyas remain in Rakhine-- many confined in 33 squalid internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. With farming disruptions now stretching into a second year, entire communities are being forced to abandon their homes. This has led to recruitment efforts by the Arakan Army targeting young people in rural villages, further compounding fears of a large-scale migration that would definitely perpetuate instability across the region.
References have also emerged about another perspective that needs to be carefully monitored. It relates to shifting from a state-centric approach. The Resolution and debate at the UN General Assembly reflected a traditional state-centric approach, one that assumes that in Myanmar a central government can shape political life in all its component parts. The multiple references to "Myanmar" appear to refer exclusively to the military regime. However, the SAC appears to have now lost control of much of the country. In Rakhine, it barely retains a toehold: following recent heavy losses and its authority is limited to the state capital Sittwe, the island of Munaung, and small sections of Kyaukphyu and Gwa townships - with the latter seemingly about to fall.
Consequently, we all have a difficult challenge ahead which needs to be overcome with great care.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign
affairs, right to information and good governance. muhammadzamir0@gmail.com