As US President Donald Trump slams hefty taxes on imports and constantly threatens for more, goading long-time partners and allies into ugly fights, a global trade war is erupting. With a new round of tariffs on steel and aluminium that went into effect last week, the worldwide “reciprocal” tariffs on the horizon next month could potentially deepen the global trade war.
Details of the Fair and Reciprocal Trade Plan that will impact all US trading partners are not yet known, but the US administration has suggested these tariffs will target any rules it considers “unfair”. Reciprocal tariffs aim to create deals with individual countries, drawing them into the US orbit. Universal tariffs, however, would lead to countries banding together.
The ongoing trade tensions between the US and other countries have created economic uncertainty and may cause significant damage to the global economy. The lessons countries around the world draw will help determine just how much the global economy cracks up as Trump’s trade war deepens.
Tariffs have been a central part of Trump’s overall economic vision. He claims tariffs will enhance US manufacturing, safeguard jobs, increase tax revenue, and stimulate domestic economic growth. He also wants to restore America’s trade balance with its trading partners, reducing the gap that exists between the US imports from and exports to other countries. He has not ruled out a recession due to his trade policies. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also said the tariffs were “worth it” even if they lead to an economic downturn.
Trump is using tariffs for two different purposes. The first type of tariff is designed to advance his “America First” trade policy. These tariffs are fiscal levers— traditional protectionist measures to disadvantage foreign producers and to stimulate local manufacturing. The second type of tariff are bargaining chips, or in some cases, bludgeoning clubs designed to pressure world leaders to bend to Trump’s diktats. Some of the tariffs can straddle both categories. It is not always clear what is protectionism, and what is power playing.
Trade has been cited as a major contributing factor to the relative decline of the US economy in the global context and to various other internal issues, including significant levels of income inequality. The core of Trump’s response to the decline as he sees it, however, remains economic. To deal with the decline Trump has uniquely combined relentless right-wing propaganda against government depicting it as inherently undesirable, harmful and illegitimate with another idea also relentlessly promoted by the left in the US that free trade is bad and must be shut down. Comprehensive protectionism has been a central cause advocated by US trade unions since the 1970s. Now Far-right figures like Trump are equally vocal in advocating for protectionism, often calling tariffs “the most beautiful word.”
Therefore, Trump’s overall trade agenda has a much wider political scope designed to reverse the continuing decline of the American empire which is reflected in the gradual decline of America’s economic and political influence in a world that is increasingly becoming multi-polar, as the United States loses its dominance from its unipolar era. This is also evident in his slogans such as “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” and “America First.” These slogans are implicit recognition of the US’s declining economic and political influence in the world. He is obsessed by the decline of a once great imperial power, and dreams of rebuilding it.
These slogans not only aim to revitalise the American economy but also carry underlying implications. His blending of protectionism and coercion has an echo of “America First” mantra to appeal to the mass base which propelled him to office. As Russin Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pointed out in early February this year that a foreign policy based on exceptionalism risked undermining the global order based on sovereign equality.
Lavrov also warned that the US’s “America First” policy has disturbing echoes of Hitler’s “Deutschland uber alles”, that is “Germany above all” which was used by Nazis to assert national superiority over others. He also expressed his concerns that an approach based on “peace through strength” could be the final blow to diplomacy.
Last week US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that South African Ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was “no longer welcome to our great country” in the wake of a speech delivered by the ambassador virtually to a South African think-tank during which he criticised Trump administration’s policies. He said that the Trump administration was waging a “a supremacist insurgency” against the West’s political establishment and pandering to an illusory “white victimhood” among its base.
He described Trump’s MAGA movement as a “response not simply to a supremacist instinct, but a clear data that shows great demographic shifts in the USA”. He further stated, “I believe there is also an export of the revolution,” citing examples such as Elon Musk’s involvement in UK politics and US Vice President Vance addressing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) to support their election campaign. In fact, in February, Vance travelled to Europe to promote German Neo-Nazi party leader Alice Weidel.
Rubio accused Rasool of being a “race-baiting politician” who harbours animosity towards Americans and President Donald Trump. But the Trump administration’s hostilities are not just against Rasool, but the whole South African government because of its stand on Palestine, false allegations of oppression of white farmers in South Africa whom Trump encouraged to migrate to the US and growing relationships with Iran and Russia.
This anti-South Africa card also plays right into the fears of many white Americans and whites elsewhere as well as depicting South Africa posing a threat to the white Christian civilisation, further strengthening the support of the evangelical Christians in the US for Trump.
Furthermore, a South African diplomat told the press that cards were heavily stacked against Rasool because “A man named Ebrahim, who is a Muslim, with a history of pro-Palestinian politics, is not likely to do well in that job now.” This perspective of the diplomat also reflects the presence of deeply rooted Islamophobia in the US, including within the political establishment.
President Donald Trump warned BRICS countries against replacing the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, reiterating his earlier threat of 100 per cent tariffs.”There is no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. dollar in international trade, or anywhere else, and any country that tries should say hello to tariffs, and goodbye to America,” he said.
The bloc was founded as an informal club in 2009 to provide a platform for its members to challenge a world order dominated by the United States and its Western allies. The BRICS alliance counteracts US policies to protect its empire, including its sanctions warfare, with increasing effectiveness. With more than 30 countries showing interest in BRICS, it is steadily becoming a challenge to the traditional world order.
Neither current conditions nor the BRICS discussions appear to pose an immediate challenge to US interests. Though a common currency has been discussed casually, these countries are far from implementing it. Nonetheless, Trump has repeatedly threatened them with a 100 per cent tariff.
Trump’s interactions with America’s allies and neighbours, along with his proposals such as annexing Canada, controlling the Panama Canal, and acquiring Greenland from Denmark, are aimed at appealing to his MAGA base.
The present world order as crafted by the US to safeguard its imperial reach is slowly but surely breaking down. The G20 which is considered as the new foundation for stabilising the current world order failed to issue a joint statement at the conclusion of its 3-day finance ministers’ meeting held in Cape Town, South Africa in late February this year indicating its irrelevance in the newly emerging multi-polar world order.
The US, like past empires, faces crises in multiple fronts which weaken its global influence. The history of every empire, ancient or modern, has always involved a succession of crises — usually mastered in the empire’s earlier years, only to be ever more disastrously mishandled in its era of decline. Trump’s trade wars show mishandling of America’s imperial decline.
The decline occurs as a result of several negative trends that include the US military machine by diverting funds and resources to endless wars, impoverishes the empire at home, unprecedented government and international debt, the decline of the US dollar as a central bank reserve holding. Another is its decline as a means of trade, credits, and investment, inordinate concentration of wealth in the hands of relatively few individuals, dominance of corporate interests and imperial overreach among many other factors.
The US’s “unipolar moment” in history is encountering significant challenges as more powerful competitors emerge in Asia and Europe, indicating a relative shift in global power dynamics. Many believe Donald Trump’s election as President indicates a further decline and threat to American hegemony. Empires often hasten their own decline by overextending their coping mechanisms, thereby disrupting the existing world order. Trump’s tariff wars illustrate over-extension.
Trump’s bombast hides a complex economic and strategic calculus. Trump’s aggressive hyperbole and macho swagger often mask deep insecurities about the imperial decline. It is most unlikely his words will match his deeds. In the end, his policies, like tariffs, aim to strengthen the economy and maintain US hegemony but might instead accelerate further decline of the empire.
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